In the wacky Change-O-Rama that is the technology industry, what’s not changing is in some ways more interesting than what is.
- Moore’s Law - no end in sight. The reason 2020 phones will be more powerful than today’s PCs.
- Kryder’s Law - the disk drive “Moore’s Law” that drives storage capacity growth. No end in sight.
- Data growth – we need a law about this, since it’s got the staying power of #1 and #2. Something like “The volume of data in a system is limited only by the ability to manage it.” Proof points: The internet and a Google data center.
- Consumer spending – no matter how cool new technology is, consumer spending will remain pretty constant compared to technology changes. It’s a zero sum game – the best products will displace the others.
- Consumer time – ditto #4. Who will win the battle for discretionary time – phones, PCs or TV? Twitter, Google or Tivo? This is probably the biggest battlefield of all.
- IT budgets – despite revolutionary business benefits, IT spending as a percent of revenue hasn’t changed that much for mainstream companies. No change in 2010.
- Google will continue to dominate search.
- Microsoft will continue to dominate browsers and OS.
- Solid State Drives will still be too expensive for most applications.
- The most common blog post in December 2010 will be a Top 10 list.
Solid list Pete. Especially no. 10. You just can’t miss on that one. But point no. 6 I have to wonder about. What might it take?
IT just keeps getting cheaper – more and more return for the dollar. Hard to justify spending more when you can get more by just keeping budgets flat. Some can, of course, but on average I think it says flat.
[...] the rewards of the creative continuum 10 things that won’t change in 2010 Pent up demand…45 Terabytes worth Share and [...]
[...] reasons we’ll see strong US IT growth in 2010 10 things that won’t change in 2010 Storage fights back 2010 predictions or premonitions? SMB IT plans – how [...]